1 September 2008

After Denver, could the Democratic Convention be worth 9 electoral votes?

With Denver wrapped and the Democratic party packing up to go home it is worth considering the electoral impact on the Centennial State following the Convention.

Obviously Obama's Convention address will make an impact across the county, but there may also be an additional effect of hosting the convention in a swing state. The importance of Colorado is that Clinton won Colorado by 4% in 1992 and lost it by just 1% in 1996. The swing to the Republicans hit 8% when it voted Bush in 2000 but then fell in 2004 to just over 4%. The latest polls show somewhere between Obama +3% and McCain +3%. It is the definition of a swing state this year and the pendulum is headed for the Democrats. Colorado elected a Democratic Governor in 2006 with a swing to the Democratic Party of over 20%.

50,000 or so attendees, thousands of which are party members, wall to wall media that is more intense than anywhere else in the US and lots of politicians falling over themselves to praise the Denver and Colorado, is bound to have an impact in the states perceptions of the party. The Democratic Congressmen and women, Senator and the Governor will get a big boost to their profiles and local activists will feel a boost from being centre stage. Hosting the convention in Colorado could give the Democrats an extra 0.1% in November and potentially 9 electoral votes.

In a tight election, that could be the margin of victory.

By Beyond New Labour

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in a presidential election.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan