6 June 2009

Latest poll: 7 Cabinet ministers face election wipeout

Tomorrows News of the World will make painful reading for Labour Ministers and members tomorrow, with its latest poll projecting an election wipeout for the party. 

The ICM/NOTW poll show an massive 12% swing from Labour to the Conservatives and projects that the parliamentary party will lose several of its most senior members, including a number from the Cabinet. 

The polls suggest that: 

  • An election would unseat SEVEN Cabinet Ministers - the same as Labour managed to kick out when they beat the Tories in 1997.
  • Chancellor Alistair Darling, Justice Secretary Jack Straw, Work and Pensions Secretary John Denham, Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell and Scottish Jim Murphy will all lose their seats.
  • Two of the new recruits to the Cabinet appointed on Friday - Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liam Byrne - will also lose their seats.
  • And four of the Cabinet Ministers who resigned last week - Jacqui Smith, James Purnell, Geoff Hoon and John Hutton - also face the chop.
Looking at all three main parties, the poll indicates that: 
  • Labour's vote has dropped by 17%, while the Lib Dems have managed to hold on to their support, falling by just 1%.
  • less than half (46%) of voters who backed Tony Blair in 2005 would vote for Gordon Brown in a General Election.
  • nearly two thirds (58%) of voters in previously safe Labour seats think Gordon Brown is doing a poor job.
  • almost a third won't vote in a General Election because of the expenses scandal.
  • Tomorrow's poll shows that support for the Tories has shot up by 20% in the Cabinet's own constituencies since the 2005 election.
  • Labour's vote has dropped by 17%, while the Lib Dems have managed to hold on to their support, falling by just 1%.
  • Across the country there has been a 12% swing from Labour to Tory.
This will add further pressure on to the Prime Minister; although he managed to avoid the prospect of out and out rebellion on Friday, there is sure to be a spate of damaging Sunday paper headlines - the latest polls, and as I have already blogged, the allegations that Lord Mandelson sent emails stating Gordon Brown could not win an election. 

Then there is the fact that we are still awaiting the European election results. 

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